Matchday 22 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 30, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Espanyol 1–2 Alavés: lucky or expected?
Alavés beat Espanyol 2–1, but the goals lean toward Espanyol: 5 wins in 10 to Alavés’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Espanyol were expected to score 1.5 here and Alavés 1.0.
What the goals say
Luck index +60 Alavés lucky · −60 Espanyol
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 5, 3 end level, Alavés win 2.
- 1 ESP 1 ALA 0
- 2 ESP 1 ALA 0
- 3 ESP 2 ALA 0
- 4 ESP 3 ALA 1
- 5 ESP 3 ALA 0
- 6 ESP 2 ALA 2
- 7 ESP 0 ALA 0
- 8 ESP 1 ALA 1
- 9 ESP 0 ALA 2
- 10 ESP 3 ALA 4
The goals
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 15' | Roberto Fernández (Espanyol) | 1–0 | +23% Espanyol |
| 2. 27' | Antonio Blanco (Alavés) | 1–1 | +25% Alavés |
| 3. 71' | Lucas Boye (Alavés) | 1–2 | +40% Alavés |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Alavés win 40% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2025-26
- Oviedo 1–0 Girona Jan 31, 2026 · replay 48% for Oviedo
- Osasuna 2–2 Villarreal Jan 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Levante 0–0 Atlético Jan 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Elche 1–3 Barcelona Jan 31, 2026 · replay 72% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Feb 1, 2026 · replay 80% for Real Madrid
- Betis 2–1 Valencia Feb 1, 2026 · replay 68% for Betis
- Getafe 0–0 Celta Feb 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 35% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Real Sociedad Feb 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Mallorca 4–1 Sevilla Feb 2, 2026 · replay 62% for Mallorca