Matchday 22 · La Liga 2025-26 · January 31, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Elche 1–3 Barcelona: lucky or expected?
Barcelona beat Elche 3–1, and the goals lean Barcelona’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Elche, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Elche were expected to score 1.2 here and Barcelona 2.4.
What the goals say
Luck index +28 Barcelona lucky · −28 Elche
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Elche win 2, 2 end level, Barcelona win 6.
- 1 ELC 2 BAR 1
- 2 ELC 3 BAR 1
- 3 ELC 3 BAR 3
- 4 ELC 2 BAR 2
- 5 ELC 0 BAR 4
- 6 ELC 0 BAR 3
- 7 ELC 0 BAR 2
- 8 ELC 3 BAR 5
- 9 ELC 0 BAR 1
- 10 ELC 2 BAR 3
The goals
Elche’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) | 0–1 | +25% Barcelona |
| 2. 29' | Álvaro Rodríguez (Elche) | 1–1 | +29% Elche |
| 3. 40' | Ferran Torres (Barcelona) | 1–2 | +31% Barcelona |
| 4. 72' | Marcus Rashford (Barcelona) | 1–3 | +11% Barcelona |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Barcelona win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2025-26
- Espanyol 1–2 Alavés Jan 30, 2026 · replay 40% for Alavés
- Oviedo 1–0 Girona Jan 31, 2026 · replay 48% for Oviedo
- Osasuna 2–2 Villarreal Jan 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Levante 0–0 Atlético Jan 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Feb 1, 2026 · replay 80% for Real Madrid
- Betis 2–1 Valencia Feb 1, 2026 · replay 68% for Betis
- Getafe 0–0 Celta Feb 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 35% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Real Sociedad Feb 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Mallorca 4–1 Sevilla Feb 2, 2026 · replay 62% for Mallorca