Matchday 25 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Osasuna 2–1 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Osasuna beat Real Madrid 2–1, but the goals lean toward Real Madrid: 5 wins in 10 to Osasuna’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Osasuna were expected to score 1.0 here and Real Madrid 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Osasuna | 2 |
 Real Madrid | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +65 Osasuna very lucky · −65 Real Madrid
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Osasuna win 2, 3 end level, Real Madrid win 5.
- 1 OSA 1 RMA 0
- 2 OSA 2 RMA 0
- 3 OSA 1 RMA 1
- 4 OSA 0 RMA 0
- 5 OSA 2 RMA 2
- 6 OSA 1 RMA 4
- 7 OSA 0 RMA 2
- 8 OSA 1 RMA 3
- 9 OSA 1 RMA 2
- 10 OSA 1 RMA 2
The goals
Osasuna’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 38' | Ante Budimir (Osasuna, penalty) | 1–0 | +27% Osasuna |
| 2. 73' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) | 1–1 | +39% Real Madrid |
| 3. 90' | Raul Garcia (Osasuna) | 2–1 | +50% Osasuna |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Osasuna win 35% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 25, 2025-26
- Athletic 2–1 Elche Feb 20, 2026 · replay 57% for Athletic
- Real Sociedad 3–3 Oviedo Feb 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Betis 1–1 Rayo Feb 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Atlético 4–2 Espanyol Feb 21, 2026 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Getafe 0–1 Sevilla Feb 22, 2026 · replay 33% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 3–0 Levante Feb 22, 2026 · replay 86% for Barcelona
- Celta 2–0 Mallorca Feb 22, 2026 · replay 67% for Celta
- Villarreal 2–1 Valencia Feb 22, 2026 · replay 71% for Villarreal
- Alavés 2–2 Girona Feb 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws