Matchday 25 · La Liga 2025-26 · February 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Sociedad 3–3 Oviedo: lucky or expected?
Real Sociedad and Oviedo drew 3–3. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Real Sociedad win 6 of 10, Oviedo 2, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 2.0 here and Oviedo 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 3 |
 Real Oviedo | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index −25 Real Sociedad about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 6, 2 end level, Oviedo win 2.
- 1 RSO 2 OVI 1
- 2 RSO 1 OVI 0
- 3 RSO 3 OVI 1
- 4 RSO 3 OVI 1
- 5 RSO 2 OVI 0
- 6 RSO 3 OVI 0
- 7 RSO 3 OVI 3
- 8 RSO 0 OVI 0
- 9 RSO 1 OVI 3
- 10 RSO 0 OVI 1
The goals
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 50' | Federico Vinas (Oviedo) | 0–1 | +33% Oviedo |
| 2. 52' | Federico Vinas (Oviedo) | 0–2 | +16% Oviedo |
| 3. 64' | Orri Oskarsson (Real Sociedad) | 1–2 | +14% Real Sociedad |
| 4. 87' | Duje Caleta-Car (Real Sociedad) | 2–2 | +48% Real Sociedad |
| 5. 90' | Orri Oskarsson (Real Sociedad) | 3–2 | +0% Real Sociedad |
| 90+2' | Eric Bailly (Oviedo) | 3–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 25, 2025-26
- Athletic 2–1 Elche Feb 20, 2026 · replay 57% for Athletic
- Betis 1–1 Rayo Feb 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Osasuna 2–1 Real Madrid Feb 21, 2026 · replay 35% for Osasuna
- Atlético 4–2 Espanyol Feb 21, 2026 · replay 75% for Atlético
- Getafe 0–1 Sevilla Feb 22, 2026 · replay 33% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 3–0 Levante Feb 22, 2026 · replay 86% for Barcelona
- Celta 2–0 Mallorca Feb 22, 2026 · replay 67% for Celta
- Villarreal 2–1 Valencia Feb 22, 2026 · replay 71% for Villarreal
- Alavés 2–2 Girona Feb 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws