Matchday 27 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 6, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Celta 1–2 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Celta 2–1, and the goals lean Real Madrid’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Celta, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Celta were expected to score 1.2 here and Real Madrid 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 |
 Real Madrid | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +41 Real Madrid lucky · −41 Celta
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 3, 3 end level, Real Madrid win 4.
- 1 CEL 2 RMA 1
- 2 CEL 3 RMA 2
- 3 CEL 2 RMA 0
- 4 CEL 1 RMA 1
- 5 CEL 3 RMA 3
- 6 CEL 2 RMA 2
- 7 CEL 1 RMA 4
- 8 CEL 1 RMA 3
- 9 CEL 0 RMA 1
- 10 CEL 1 RMA 2
The goals
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 11' | Aurelien Tchouameni (Real Madrid) | 0–1 | +26% Real Madrid |
| 2. 25' | Borja Iglesias (Celta) | 1–1 | +28% Celta |
| 90+4' | Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) | 1–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2025-26
- Osasuna 2–2 Mallorca Mar 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Levante 1–1 Girona Mar 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Atlético 3–2 Real Sociedad Mar 7, 2026 · replay 69% for Atlético
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Mar 7, 2026 · replay 74% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 2–1 Elche Mar 8, 2026 · replay 73% for Villarreal
- Getafe 2–0 Betis Mar 8, 2026 · replay 51% for Getafe
- Sevilla 1–1 Rayo Mar 8, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Valencia 3–2 Alavés Mar 8, 2026 · replay 63% for Valencia
- Espanyol 1–1 Oviedo Mar 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws