Matchday 27 · La Liga 2025-26 · March 8, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Valencia 3–2 Alavés: lucky or expected?
Valencia beat Alavés 3–2, and the goals lean Valencia’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Alavés, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Valencia were expected to score 1.6 here and Alavés 1.0.
What the goals say
Luck index +37 Valencia lucky · −37 Alavés
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 5, 3 end level, Alavés win 2.
- 1 VAL 2 ALA 1
- 2 VAL 2 ALA 1
- 3 VAL 2 ALA 0
- 4 VAL 3 ALA 1
- 5 VAL 3 ALA 0
- 6 VAL 1 ALA 1
- 7 VAL 2 ALA 2
- 8 VAL 1 ALA 1
- 9 VAL 0 ALA 2
- 10 VAL 0 ALA 1
The goals
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 3' | Lucas Boye (Alavés, penalty) | 0–1 | +25% Alavés |
| 2. 47' | Javi Guerra (Valencia) | 1–1 | +33% Valencia |
| 3. 71' | Lucas Boye (Alavés) | 1–2 | +40% Alavés |
| 4. 90' | Eray Coemert (Valencia) | 2–2 | +100% Valencia |
| 90+9' | Hugo Duro (Valencia, penalty) | 3–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Valencia win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2025-26
- Celta 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 6, 2026 · replay 59% for Real Madrid
- Osasuna 2–2 Mallorca Mar 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Levante 1–1 Girona Mar 7, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Atlético 3–2 Real Sociedad Mar 7, 2026 · replay 69% for Atlético
- Athletic 0–1 Barcelona Mar 7, 2026 · replay 74% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 2–1 Elche Mar 8, 2026 · replay 73% for Villarreal
- Getafe 2–0 Betis Mar 8, 2026 · replay 51% for Getafe
- Sevilla 1–1 Rayo Mar 8, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Espanyol 1–1 Oviedo Mar 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws