Matchday 33 · La Liga 2025-26 · April 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Athletic 1–0 Osasuna: lucky or expected?
Athletic beat Osasuna 1–0, and the goals lean Athletic’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Osasuna, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Athletic were expected to score 1.3 here and Osasuna 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 1 |
 Osasuna | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +45 Athletic lucky · −45 Osasuna
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 4, 3 end level, Osasuna win 3.
- 1 ATH 1 OSA 0
- 2 ATH 1 OSA 0
- 3 ATH 2 OSA 0
- 4 ATH 4 OSA 1
- 5 ATH 0 OSA 0
- 6 ATH 1 OSA 1
- 7 ATH 2 OSA 2
- 8 ATH 0 OSA 2
- 9 ATH 1 OSA 2
- 10 ATH 2 OSA 3
The goals
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 16' | Gorka Guruzeta (Athletic) | 1–0 | +23% Athletic |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Athletic win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
- Mallorca 1–1 Valencia Apr 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Girona 2–3 Betis Apr 21, 2026 · replay 54% for Betis
- Real Madrid 2–1 Alavés Apr 21, 2026 · replay 83% for Real Madrid
- Elche 3–2 Atlético Apr 22, 2026 · replay 44% for Elche
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Getafe Apr 22, 2026 · replay 38% for Getafe
- Barcelona 1–0 Celta Apr 22, 2026 · replay 80% for Barcelona
- Levante 2–0 Sevilla Apr 23, 2026 · replay 60% for Levante
- Rayo 1–0 Espanyol Apr 23, 2026 · replay 67% for Rayo
- Oviedo 1–1 Villarreal Apr 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws