Matchday 33 · La Liga 2025-26 · April 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 2–1 Alavés: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Alavés 2–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.3 here and Alavés 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 2 |
 Alavés | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +17 Real Madrid about even · −17 Alavés
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 7, 2 end level, Alavés win 1.
- 1 RMA 2 ALA 1
- 2 RMA 1 ALA 0
- 3 RMA 4 ALA 2
- 4 RMA 3 ALA 1
- 5 RMA 4 ALA 1
- 6 RMA 3 ALA 0
- 7 RMA 4 ALA 0
- 8 RMA 0 ALA 0
- 9 RMA 0 ALA 0
- 10 RMA 1 ALA 2
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 30' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 1–0 | +25% Real Madrid |
| 2. 50' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) | 2–0 | +11% Real Madrid |
| 90+3' | Toni Martinez (Alavés) | 2–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
- Athletic 1–0 Osasuna Apr 21, 2026 · replay 55% for Athletic
- Mallorca 1–1 Valencia Apr 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Girona 2–3 Betis Apr 21, 2026 · replay 54% for Betis
- Elche 3–2 Atlético Apr 22, 2026 · replay 44% for Elche
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Getafe Apr 22, 2026 · replay 38% for Getafe
- Barcelona 1–0 Celta Apr 22, 2026 · replay 80% for Barcelona
- Levante 2–0 Sevilla Apr 23, 2026 · replay 60% for Levante
- Rayo 1–0 Espanyol Apr 23, 2026 · replay 67% for Rayo
- Oviedo 1–1 Villarreal Apr 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws