luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 34 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 2, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Alavés 2–4 Athletic: lucky or expected?

Athletic beat Alavés 4–2, but the goals lean toward Alavés: 5 wins in 10 to Athletic’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Alavés were expected to score 1.5 here and Athletic 1.1.

Full time

Goals
Alavés 2
Athletic Club 4

May 2, 2026

Luck index +61 Athletic very lucky · −61 Alavés

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Alavés win 5, 3 end level, Athletic win 2.

  1. 1 ALA 1 ATH 0
  2. 2 ALA 2 ATH 1
  3. 3 ALA 1 ATH 0
  4. 4 ALA 3 ATH 1
  5. 5 ALA 3 ATH 0
  6. 6 ALA 1 ATH 1
  7. 7 ALA 0 ATH 0
  8. 8 ALA 2 ATH 2
  9. 9 ALA 1 ATH 3
  10. 10 ALA 2 ATH 3

The goals

Alavés’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Alavés was ahead in it, below while Athletic was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 8' Antonio Blanco (Alavés) 1–0 +22% Alavés
2. 46' Roberto Navarro (Athletic) 1–1 +29% Athletic
3. 68' Nahuel Tenaglia (Alavés) 2–1 +36% Alavés
4. 74' Oihan Sancet (Athletic) 2–2 +39% Athletic
5. 83' Nico Williams (Athletic) 2–3 +46% Athletic
6. 87' Nico Williams (Athletic) 2–4 +2% Athletic

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Athletic win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 34 matches, 2025-26 · Alavés · Athletic

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