Matchday 34 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 2, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Osasuna 1–2 Barcelona: lucky or expected?
Barcelona beat Osasuna 2–1, and the goals lean Barcelona’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Osasuna, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Osasuna were expected to score 1.1 here and Barcelona 2.2.
What the goals say
Luck index +29 Barcelona lucky · −29 Osasuna
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Osasuna win 2, 2 end level, Barcelona win 6.
- 1 OSA 2 BAR 1
- 2 OSA 2 BAR 0
- 3 OSA 1 BAR 1
- 4 OSA 0 BAR 0
- 5 OSA 1 BAR 5
- 6 OSA 0 BAR 3
- 7 OSA 0 BAR 2
- 8 OSA 1 BAR 3
- 9 OSA 1 BAR 2
- 10 OSA 0 BAR 1
The goals
Osasuna’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 81' | Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona) | 0–1 | +45% Barcelona |
| 2. 86' | Ferran Torres (Barcelona) | 0–2 | +3% Barcelona |
| 3. 88' | Raul Garcia (Osasuna) | 1–2 | +2% Osasuna |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Barcelona win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2025-26
- Girona 0–1 Mallorca May 1, 2026 · replay 42% for Mallorca
- Villarreal 5–1 Levante May 2, 2026 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Valencia 0–2 Atlético May 2, 2026 · replay 54% for Atlético
- Alavés 2–4 Athletic May 2, 2026 · replay 39% for Athletic
- Celta 3–1 Elche May 3, 2026 · replay 67% for Celta
- Getafe 0–2 Rayo May 3, 2026 · replay 41% for Rayo
- Betis 3–0 Oviedo May 3, 2026 · replay 82% for Betis
- Espanyol 0–2 Real Madrid May 3, 2026 · replay 68% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–0 Real Sociedad May 4, 2026 · replay 52% for Sevilla