Matchday 35 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 9, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Elche 1–1 Alavés: lucky or expected?
Elche and Alavés drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Elche win 5 of 10, Alavés 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Elche were expected to score 1.6 here and Alavés 1.1.
What the goals say
Luck index −11 Elche about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Elche win 5, 3 end level, Alavés win 2.
- 1 ELC 3 ALA 2
- 2 ELC 1 ALA 0
- 3 ELC 2 ALA 0
- 4 ELC 2 ALA 0
- 5 ELC 4 ALA 1
- 6 ELC 1 ALA 1
- 7 ELC 2 ALA 2
- 8 ELC 1 ALA 1
- 9 ELC 0 ALA 2
- 10 ELC 0 ALA 1
The goals
Elche’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 51' | Toni Martinez (Alavés, penalty) | 0–1 | +34% Alavés |
| 2. 72' | Álvaro Rodríguez (Elche) | 1–1 | +41% Elche |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 35, 2025-26
- Levante 3–2 Osasuna May 8, 2026 · replay 55% for Levante
- Sevilla 2–1 Espanyol May 9, 2026 · replay 58% for Sevilla
- Atlético 0–1 Celta May 9, 2026 · replay 33% for Celta
- Real Sociedad 2–2 Betis May 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Mallorca 1–1 Villarreal May 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Valencia May 10, 2026 · replay 45% for Valencia
- Oviedo 0–0 Getafe May 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 40% draws
- Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid May 10, 2026 · replay 65% for Barcelona
- Rayo 1–1 Girona May 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws