Matchday 35 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Barcelona beat Real Madrid 2–0, and the goals lean Barcelona’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Real Madrid, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Barcelona were expected to score 2.3 here and Real Madrid 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Barcelona | 2 |
 Real Madrid | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +35 Barcelona lucky · −35 Real Madrid
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 5, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 3.
- 1 BAR 3 RMA 2
- 2 BAR 2 RMA 1
- 3 BAR 4 RMA 2
- 4 BAR 4 RMA 1
- 5 BAR 4 RMA 0
- 6 BAR 1 RMA 1
- 7 BAR 0 RMA 0
- 8 BAR 0 RMA 2
- 9 BAR 1 RMA 2
- 10 BAR 1 RMA 2
The goals
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 9' | Marcus Rashford (Barcelona) | 1–0 | +22% Barcelona |
| 2. 18' | Ferran Torres (Barcelona) | 2–0 | +12% Barcelona |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Barcelona win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 35, 2025-26
- Levante 3–2 Osasuna May 8, 2026 · replay 55% for Levante
- Elche 1–1 Alavés May 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Sevilla 2–1 Espanyol May 9, 2026 · replay 58% for Sevilla
- Atlético 0–1 Celta May 9, 2026 · replay 33% for Celta
- Real Sociedad 2–2 Betis May 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Mallorca 1–1 Villarreal May 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Valencia May 10, 2026 · replay 45% for Valencia
- Oviedo 0–0 Getafe May 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 40% draws
- Rayo 1–1 Girona May 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws