Matchday 36 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 13, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Alavés 1–0 Barcelona: lucky or expected?
Alavés beat Barcelona 1–0, but the goals lean toward Barcelona: 6 wins in 10 to Alavés’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Alavés were expected to score 1.1 here and Barcelona 2.3.
What the goals say
Luck index +74 Alavés very lucky · −74 Barcelona
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Alavés win 2, 2 end level, Barcelona win 6.
- 1 ALA 1 BAR 0
- 2 ALA 3 BAR 1
- 3 ALA 2 BAR 2
- 4 ALA 2 BAR 2
- 5 ALA 1 BAR 5
- 6 ALA 0 BAR 3
- 7 ALA 0 BAR 2
- 8 ALA 1 BAR 3
- 9 ALA 1 BAR 2
- 10 ALA 0 BAR 1
The goals
Alavés’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 45+1' | Ibrahim Diabate (Alavés) | 1–0 | +29% Alavés |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Alavés win 26% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 36, 2025-26
- Celta 2–3 Levante May 12, 2026 · replay 31% for Levante
- Betis 2–1 Elche May 12, 2026 · replay 69% for Betis
- Osasuna 1–2 Atlético May 12, 2026 · replay 54% for Atlético
- Espanyol 2–0 Athletic May 13, 2026 · replay 61% for Espanyol
- Villarreal 2–3 Sevilla May 13, 2026 · replay 25% for Sevilla
- Getafe 3–1 Mallorca May 13, 2026 · replay 64% for Getafe
- Valencia 1–1 Rayo May 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Girona 1–1 Real Sociedad May 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Real Madrid 2–0 Oviedo May 14, 2026 · replay 92% for Real Madrid