Matchday 38 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 23, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Alavés 1–2 Rayo: lucky or expected?
Rayo beat Alavés 2–1, but the goals call it even: Rayo win 3 of 10, Alavés 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Alavés were expected to score 1.2 here and Rayo 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Alavés | 1 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +54 Rayo lucky · −54 Alavés
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Alavés win 4, 3 end level, Rayo win 3.
- 1 ALA 1 RAY 0
- 2 ALA 2 RAY 1
- 3 ALA 1 RAY 0
- 4 ALA 2 RAY 0
- 5 ALA 0 RAY 0
- 6 ALA 1 RAY 1
- 7 ALA 0 RAY 0
- 8 ALA 0 RAY 2
- 9 ALA 1 RAY 2
- 10 ALA 1 RAY 2
The goals
Alavés’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 13' | Toni Martinez (Alavés) | 1–0 | +22% Alavés |
| 2. 73' | Sergio Camello (Rayo) | 1–1 | +39% Rayo |
| 3. 90' | Randy Nteka (Rayo) | 1–2 | +50% Rayo |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Rayo win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2025-26
- Girona 1–1 Elche May 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Getafe 1–0 Osasuna May 23, 2026 · replay 62% for Getafe
- Betis 2–1 Levante May 23, 2026 · replay 71% for Betis
- Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic May 23, 2026 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 3–1 Barcelona May 23, 2026 · replay 30% for Valencia
- Espanyol 1–1 Real Sociedad May 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mallorca 3–0 Oviedo May 23, 2026 · replay 73% for Mallorca
- Celta 1–0 Sevilla May 23, 2026 · replay 70% for Celta
- Villarreal 5–1 Atlético May 24, 2026 · replay 60% for Villarreal