Matchday 38 · La Liga 2025-26 · May 23, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Valencia 3–1 Barcelona: lucky or expected?
Valencia beat Barcelona 3–1, but the goals lean toward Barcelona: 6 wins in 10 to Valencia’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Valencia were expected to score 1.2 here and Barcelona 2.2.
What the goals say
Luck index +70 Valencia very lucky · −70 Barcelona
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 2, 2 end level, Barcelona win 6.
- 1 VAL 1 BAR 0
- 2 VAL 2 BAR 0
- 3 VAL 2 BAR 2
- 4 VAL 1 BAR 1
- 5 VAL 0 BAR 4
- 6 VAL 0 BAR 3
- 7 VAL 2 BAR 4
- 8 VAL 1 BAR 3
- 9 VAL 0 BAR 1
- 10 VAL 0 BAR 1
The goals
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 61' | Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona) | 0–1 | +37% Barcelona |
| 2. 66' | Javi Guerra (Valencia) | 1–1 | +39% Valencia |
| 3. 71' | Luis Rioja (Valencia) | 2–1 | +38% Valencia |
| 90+7' | Guido Rodriguez (Valencia) | 3–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Valencia win 30% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 38, 2025-26
- Girona 1–1 Elche May 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Getafe 1–0 Osasuna May 23, 2026 · replay 62% for Getafe
- Betis 2–1 Levante May 23, 2026 · replay 71% for Betis
- Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic May 23, 2026 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Espanyol 1–1 Real Sociedad May 23, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Mallorca 3–0 Oviedo May 23, 2026 · replay 73% for Mallorca
- Alavés 1–2 Rayo May 23, 2026 · replay 46% for Rayo
- Celta 1–0 Sevilla May 23, 2026 · replay 70% for Celta
- Villarreal 5–1 Atlético May 24, 2026 · replay 60% for Villarreal