Matchday 6 · La Liga 2026-27 · September 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Betis 1–0 Getafe: lucky or expected?
Betis beat Getafe 1–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Betis win 7 of 10, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Betis were expected to score 1.3 here and Getafe 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 |
 Getafe | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +19 Betis about even · −19 Getafe
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 7, 3 end level, Getafe win 0.
- 1 BET 1 GET 0
- 2 BET 1 GET 0
- 3 BET 1 GET 0
- 4 BET 1 GET 0
- 5 BET 2 GET 0
- 6 BET 2 GET 0
- 7 BET 3 GET 0
- 8 BET 0 GET 0
- 9 BET 0 GET 0
- 10 BET 0 GET 0
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Betis 57% to win, 28% for a draw, Getafe 15%. Betis won: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.1 goals from ours; 73% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
Our source lists this match’s score but not who scored or when, so there is no timeline of it. The replay above needs only the score.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Betis win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2026-27
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Celta Sep 3, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Espanyol Sep 15, 2026 · replay 54% for Rayo
- Alavés 0–1 Valencia Sep 15, 2026 · replay 20% for Valencia
- Elche 2–3 Real Madrid Sep 15, 2026 · replay 65% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 0–1 Sevilla Sep 16, 2026 · replay 51% for Sevilla
- Atlético 4–0 Osasuna Sep 16, 2026 · replay 89% for Atlético
- Barcelona 7–2 Racing Sep 16, 2026 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Málaga 1–3 Villarreal Sep 17, 2026 · replay 64% for Villarreal