Matchday 6 · La Liga 2026-27 · September 3, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Sociedad 0–0 Celta: lucky or expected?
Real Sociedad and Celta drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Real Sociedad win 5 of 10, Celta 2, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 1.5 here and Celta 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 0 |
 Celta Vigo | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index −12 Real Sociedad about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 5, 3 end level, Celta win 2.
- 1 RSO 2 CEL 1
- 2 RSO 2 CEL 1
- 3 RSO 1 CEL 0
- 4 RSO 3 CEL 1
- 5 RSO 3 CEL 0
- 6 RSO 0 CEL 0
- 7 RSO 0 CEL 0
- 8 RSO 1 CEL 1
- 9 RSO 0 CEL 2
- 10 RSO 0 CEL 1
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Real Sociedad 43% to win, 27% for a draw, Celta 30%. It ended level; we gave a draw 27%. The final margin was 0.3 goals from ours; 73% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
No goals: Real Sociedad and Celta drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (62% for Real Sociedad, draws counted half).
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 6, 2026-27
- Rayo 2–1 Espanyol Sep 15, 2026 · replay 54% for Rayo
- Alavés 0–1 Valencia Sep 15, 2026 · replay 20% for Valencia
- Elche 2–3 Real Madrid Sep 15, 2026 · replay 65% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 0–1 Sevilla Sep 16, 2026 · replay 51% for Sevilla
- Atlético 4–0 Osasuna Sep 16, 2026 · replay 89% for Atlético
- Barcelona 7–2 Racing Sep 16, 2026 · replay 89% for Barcelona
- Betis 1–0 Getafe Sep 17, 2026 · replay 81% for Betis
- Málaga 1–3 Villarreal Sep 17, 2026 · replay 64% for Villarreal