Matchday 24 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 31, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Liverpool 4–1 Newcastle: lucky or expected?
Liverpool beat Newcastle 4–1, and the goals lean Liverpool’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Newcastle, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Liverpool were expected to score 1.9 here and Newcastle 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Liverpool | 4 |
 Newcastle United | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +38 Liverpool lucky · −38 Newcastle
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 5, 2 end level, Newcastle win 3.
- 1 LIV 2 NEW 1
- 2 LIV 3 NEW 2
- 3 LIV 3 NEW 1
- 4 LIV 4 NEW 1
- 5 LIV 4 NEW 0
- 6 LIV 0 NEW 0
- 7 LIV 3 NEW 3
- 8 LIV 1 NEW 3
- 9 LIV 1 NEW 2
- 10 LIV 2 NEW 3
The goals
Liverpool’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 36' | Anthony Gordon (Newcastle) | 0–1 | +29% Newcastle |
| 2. 41' | Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool) | 1–1 | +30% Liverpool |
| 3. 43' | Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool) | 2–1 | +28% Liverpool |
| 4. 67' | Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) | 3–1 | +9% Liverpool |
| 90+3' | Ibrahima Konate (Liverpool) | 4–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Liverpool win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2025-26
- Leeds 0–4 Arsenal Jan 31, 2026 · replay 68% for Arsenal
- Brighton 1–1 Everton Jan 31, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Wolves 0–2 Bournemouth Jan 31, 2026 · replay 67% for Bournemouth
- Chelsea 3–2 West Ham Jan 31, 2026 · replay 68% for Chelsea
- Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace Feb 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Man United 3–2 Fulham Feb 1, 2026 · replay 68% for Man United
- Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford Feb 1, 2026 · replay 42% for Brentford
- Tottenham 2–2 Man City Feb 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sunderland 3–0 Burnley Feb 2, 2026 · replay 74% for Sunderland