Matchday 27 · Premier League 2025-26 · February 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man City 2–1 Newcastle: lucky or expected?
Man City beat Newcastle 2–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Man City win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 2.2 here and Newcastle 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester City | 2 |
 Newcastle United | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +23 Man City about even · −23 Newcastle
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 7, 2 end level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 MCI 2 NEW 1
- 2 MCI 1 NEW 0
- 3 MCI 1 NEW 0
- 4 MCI 3 NEW 1
- 5 MCI 2 NEW 0
- 6 MCI 5 NEW 2
- 7 MCI 4 NEW 0
- 8 MCI 1 NEW 1
- 9 MCI 3 NEW 3
- 10 MCI 0 NEW 1
The goals
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Nico Oreilly (Man City) | 1–0 | +23% Man City |
| 2. 22' | Lewis Hall (Newcastle) | 1–1 | +24% Newcastle |
| 3. 27' | Nico Oreilly (Man City) | 2–1 | +25% Man City |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 77% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2025-26
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leeds Feb 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Chelsea 1–1 Burnley Feb 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Brentford 0–2 Brighton Feb 21, 2026 · replay 45% for Brighton
- West Ham 0–0 Bournemouth Feb 21, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Forest 0–1 Liverpool Feb 22, 2026 · replay 51% for Liverpool
- Sunderland 1–3 Fulham Feb 22, 2026 · replay 43% for Fulham
- Crystal Palace 1–0 Wolves Feb 22, 2026 · replay 74% for Crystal Palace
- Tottenham 1–4 Arsenal Feb 22, 2026 · replay 70% for Arsenal
- Everton 0–1 Man United Feb 23, 2026 · replay 55% for Man United