Matchday 4 · Premier League 2026-27 · September 12, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Liverpool 0–0 Fulham: lucky or expected?
Liverpool and Fulham drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Liverpool win 6 of 10, Fulham 1, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Liverpool were expected to score 1.3 here and Fulham 0.2.
What the goals say
Luck index −28 Liverpool unlucky for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 6, 3 end level, Fulham win 1.
- 1 LIV 1 FUL 0
- 2 LIV 1 FUL 0
- 3 LIV 2 FUL 1
- 4 LIV 2 FUL 0
- 5 LIV 2 FUL 0
- 6 LIV 3 FUL 0
- 7 LIV 0 FUL 0
- 8 LIV 0 FUL 0
- 9 LIV 0 FUL 0
- 10 LIV 1 FUL 2
Our prediction before kickoff
We had Liverpool 60% to win, 22% for a draw, Fulham 18%. It ended level; we gave a draw 22%. The final margin was 1.0 goal from ours; 36% of matches like this end further from the forecast than that.
Before kickoff
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both clubs’ strength known exactly, a few shots decide a soccer match. This match was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
The goals
No goals: Liverpool and Fulham drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (78% for Liverpool, draws counted half).
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 4, 2026-27
- Crystal Palace 2–3 Ipswich Sep 12, 2026 · replay 46% for Ipswich
- Aston Villa 1–2 Forest Sep 12, 2026 · replay 49% for Forest
- Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford Sep 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Chelsea 2–2 Hull Sep 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton Sep 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal Sep 12, 2026 · replay 72% for Arsenal
- Coventry 0–5 Brighton Sep 13, 2026 · replay 83% for Brighton
- Man United 0–1 Man City Sep 13, 2026 · replay 66% for Man City
- Leeds 4–1 Newcastle Sep 14, 2026 · replay 71% for Leeds