Third-place play-off · World Cup 2018 · July 14, 2018
Belgium 2–0 England: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat England 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Belgium go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.3 expected goals to 1.3).
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +40 Belgium lucky · −40 England
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Belgium win 5, 3 end level, England win 2.
- 1 BEL 2 ENG 1
- 2 BEL 2 ENG 1
- 3 BEL 2 ENG 0
- 4 BEL 2 ENG 0
- 5 BEL 4 ENG 0
- 6 BEL 2 ENG 2
- 7 BEL 1 ENG 1
- 8 BEL 0 ENG 0
- 9 BEL 1 ENG 3
- 10 BEL 0 ENG 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Belgium win 47%, 26% end level, England win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Belgium by 3+ | 10.5% |
| Belgium by 2 | 14.5% |
| Belgium by 1 | 22.3% |
| Draw | 26.0% |
| England by 1 | 15.8% |
| England by 2 | 7.8% |
| England by 3+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 11 | 2 | 1.32 | +0.68 |
 England | 15 | 0 | 1.34 | −1.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Thomas Meunier scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 69' | Eric Dier didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 81' | Eden Hazard scored from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
Belgium’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Thomas Meunier scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +16% BEL |
| 2 | 14' | Ruben Loftus-Cheek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% BEL |
| 3 | 22' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% BEL |
| 4 | 69' | Eric Dier didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +17% BEL |
| 5 | 69' | Harry Maguire didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BEL |
| 6 | 72' | Eric Dier didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% BEL |
| 7 | 73' | Harry Maguire didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% BEL |
| 8 | 81' | Eden Hazard scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +3% BEL |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium go through in 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).