luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Quarter-finals · World Cup 2022 · December 9, 2022 · pens

Netherlands 2–2 Argentina: who deserved to win?

Argentina went through on penalties after 2–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Argentina go through 8 times in 10. Argentina made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.6.

Full time · won on penalties

GoalsxG
Netherlands 2 0.57
Argentina 2 1.94

December 9, 2022 · Lusail Stadium · Referee: Antonio Miguel Mateu Lahoz

Luck index +18 Argentina about even · −18 Netherlands

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Netherlands win 1, 2 end level, Argentina win 7.

  1. 1 NED 1 ARG 0
  2. 2 NED 1 ARG 1
  3. 3 NED 0 ARG 0
  4. 4 NED 0 ARG 4
  5. 5 NED 0 ARG 3
  6. 6 NED 0 ARG 2
  7. 7 NED 0 ARG 2
  8. 8 NED 1 ARG 2
  9. 9 NED 1 ARG 2
  10. 10 NED 0 ARG 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Netherlands win 10%, 23% end level, Argentina win 68%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Netherlands by 3+0.4%
Netherlands by 21.7%
Netherlands by 17.6%
Draw22.6%
Argentina by 129.5%
Argentina by 221.4%
Argentina by 3+16.9%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Netherlands720.57+1.43
Argentina14 (1 pen)21.94+0.06

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
34'Nahuel Molina Lucero scored from a shot0.43
72'Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a penalty0.78
82'Wout Weghorst scored from a shot0.05
100'Wout Weghorst scored from a shot0.22

When it happened

Netherlands’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Netherlands was ahead in it, below while Argentina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 34' Nahuel Molina Lucero scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance +16% ARG
2 82' Wout Weghorst scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +5% NED
3 92' Steven Berghuis didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance +4% ARG
4 100' Wout Weghorst scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +39% NED
5 ET 112' Luuk de Jong didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% ARG
6 ET 113' Lautaro Javier Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +10% NED
7 ET 118' Lautaro Javier Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +4% NED
8 Pens 120' Argentina won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +50% ARG

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 2–2. Argentina go through in 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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