Quarter-finals · World Cup 2022 · December 10, 2022
Morocco 1–0 Portugal: who deserved to win?
Morocco beat Portugal 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Morocco go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 0.7).
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +36 Morocco lucky · −36 Portugal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Morocco win 5, 3 end level, Portugal win 2.
- 1 MAR 2 POR 1
- 2 MAR 1 POR 0
- 3 MAR 2 POR 1
- 4 MAR 2 POR 0
- 5 MAR 3 POR 0
- 6 MAR 1 POR 1
- 7 MAR 1 POR 1
- 8 MAR 0 POR 0
- 9 MAR 1 POR 2
- 10 MAR 0 POR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Morocco win 47%, 32% end level, Portugal win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Morocco by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Morocco by 3+ | 7.1% |
| Morocco by 2 | 12.7% |
| Morocco by 1 | 27.4% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Portugal by 1 | 15.4% |
| Portugal by 2 | 4.3% |
| Portugal by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Morocco | 9 | 1 | 0.97 | +0.03 |
 Portugal | 12 | 0 | 0.74 | −0.74 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 41' | Youssef En-Nesyri scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 95' | Zakaria Aboukhlal didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
When it happened
Morocco’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | João Félix Sequeira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% MAR |
| 2 | 5' | Youssef En-Nesyri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% POR |
| 3 | 41' | Youssef En-Nesyri scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +24% MAR |
| 4 | 57' | Gonçalo Matias Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% MAR |
| 5 | 63' | Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MAR |
| 6 | 70' | Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% MAR |
| 7 | 90' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% MAR |
| 8 | 96' | Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% MAR |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Morocco go through in 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from quarter-finals, 2022
- Netherlands 2–2 Argentina Dec 9, 2022 · pens · replay 82% for Argentina
- Croatia 1–1 Brazil Dec 9, 2022 · pens · replay 28% for Croatia
- England 1–2 France Dec 10, 2022 · replay 23% for France