Quarter-finals · World Cup 2022 · December 10, 2022

England 1–2 France: who deserved to win?

France beat England 2–1, but the replays send England through 8 times in 10. England made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 0.8.

Full time

Team	Goals	xG
England	1	2.35
France	2	0.84

December 10, 2022 · Al Bayt Stadium · Referee: Wilton Pereira Sampaio

Replay with same day's form: who goes through

Luck index +77 France very lucky · −77 England

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. England win 6, 2 end level, France win 2.

1 ENG 1 FRA 0
2 ENG 1 FRA 0
3 ENG 2 FRA 0
4 ENG 3 FRA 1
5 ENG 4 FRA 1
6 ENG 4 FRA 0
7 ENG 1 FRA 1
8 ENG 2 FRA 2
9 ENG 2 FRA 3
10 ENG 0 FRA 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

England win 63%, 20% end level, France win 16%. The line is what actually happened: France by 1.

Actual: France by 1 654321Draw123456 ← England win by France win by →

Show as a table

After 90 minutes in the replays	Share of replays
England by 3+	20.2%
England by 2	19.5%
England by 1	23.6%
Draw	20.3%
France by 1	10.7%
France by 2	4.2%
France by 3+	1.5%

Where the luck was

Finishing	Shots	Goals	Expected goals	Above expected
England	16 (2 pen)	1	2.35	−1.35
France	8	2	0.84	+1.16

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

Minute	Chance	xG
16'	Aurélien Djani Tchouaméni scored from a shot	0.03
53'	Harry Kane scored from a penalty	0.78
77'	Olivier Giroud scored from a shot	0.15
83'	Harry Kane didn’t score from a penalty	0.78

When it happened

England’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

England 50% France 1st half2nd half 1234678

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while England was ahead in it, below while France was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for
1	10'	Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance	+5% ENG
2	16'	Aurélien Djani Tchouaméni scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance	+25% FRA
3	21'	Jude Bellingham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance	+6% FRA
4	53'	Harry Kane scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance	+7% ENG
5	76'	Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance	+9% ENG
6	77'	Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance	+36% FRA
7	83'	Harry Kane didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance	+36% FRA
8	100'	Marcus Rashford didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance	+4% FRA

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France go through in 23% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All quarter-finals matches, 2022 · England · France