luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 11, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

South Korea 2–1 Czech Republic: lucky or expected?

South Korea beat Czech Republic 2–1, and the goals lean South Korea’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Czech Republic, 3 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, South Korea were expected to score 1.5 here and Czech Republic 0.9.

Full time

Goals
South Korea 2
Czech Republic 1

June 11, 2026

Luck index +36 South Korea lucky · −36 Czech Republic

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. South Korea win 5, 3 end level, Czech Republic win 2.

  1. 1 KOR 2 CZE 1
  2. 2 KOR 1 CZE 0
  3. 3 KOR 2 CZE 0
  4. 4 KOR 2 CZE 0
  5. 5 KOR 5 CZE 1
  6. 6 KOR 1 CZE 1
  7. 7 KOR 1 CZE 1
  8. 8 KOR 0 CZE 0
  9. 9 KOR 0 CZE 2
  10. 10 KOR 0 CZE 1

The goals

South Korea’s chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while South Korea was ahead in it, below while Czech Republic was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 59' Ladislav Krejcí (Czech Republic) 0–1 +34% Czech Republic
2. 67' Hwang In-Beom (South Korea) 1–1 +37% South Korea
3. 80' Oh Hyeon-Gyu (South Korea) 2–1 +43% South Korea

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. South Korea win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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