Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 14, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Sweden 5–1 Tunisia: lucky or expected?
Sweden beat Tunisia 5–1, and the goals lean Sweden’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Tunisia, 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Sweden were expected to score 3.0 here and Tunisia 1.6.
What the goals say
Luck index +27 Sweden lucky · −27 Tunisia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Sweden win 6, 2 end level, Tunisia win 2.
- 1 SWE 2 TUN 1
- 2 SWE 1 TUN 0
- 3 SWE 3 TUN 1
- 4 SWE 4 TUN 1
- 5 SWE 4 TUN 0
- 6 SWE 6 TUN 1
- 7 SWE 2 TUN 2
- 8 SWE 3 TUN 3
- 9 SWE 1 TUN 3
- 10 SWE 2 TUN 3
The goals
Sweden’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Yasin Ayari (Sweden) | 1–0 | +23% Sweden |
| 2. 30' | Alexander Isak (Sweden) | 2–0 | +15% Sweden |
| 3. 43' | Omar Rekik (Tunisia) | 2–1 | +15% Tunisia |
| 4. 59' | Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden) | 3–1 | +13% Sweden |
| 5. 84' | Mattias Svanberg (Sweden) | 4–1 | +0% Sweden |
| 90+6' | Yasin Ayari (Sweden) | 5–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Sweden win 73% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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