Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 12, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
United States 4–1 Paraguay: lucky or expected?
United States beat Paraguay 4–1, and the goals lean United States’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Paraguay, 3 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, United States were expected to score 1.7 here and Paraguay 1.0. An own goal helped United States.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 United States | 4 |
 Paraguay | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +35 United States lucky · −35 Paraguay
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. United States win 5, 3 end level, Paraguay win 2.
- 1 USA 1 PAR 0
- 2 USA 2 PAR 1
- 3 USA 2 PAR 0
- 4 USA 3 PAR 1
- 5 USA 6 PAR 2
- 6 USA 0 PAR 0
- 7 USA 1 PAR 1
- 8 USA 2 PAR 2
- 9 USA 0 PAR 2
- 10 USA 0 PAR 1
The goals
United States’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Damian Bobadilla (United States, own goal) | 1–0 | +23% United States |
| 2. 31' | Folarin Balogun (United States) | 2–0 | +15% United States |
| 3. 45+5' | Folarin Balogun (United States) | 3–0 | +4% United States |
| 4. 73' | Mauricio (Paraguay) | 3–1 | +1% Paraguay |
| 90+8' | Giovanni Reyna (United States) | 4–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. United States win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
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