Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 15, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Belgium 1–1 Egypt: lucky or expected?
Belgium and Egypt drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this tournament, Belgium win 5 of 10, Egypt 3, and 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Belgium were expected to score 1.9 here and Egypt 1.3. An own goal helped Belgium.
What the goals say
Luck index −12 Belgium about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Belgium win 5, 2 end level, Egypt win 3.
- 1 BEL 2 EGY 1
- 2 BEL 2 EGY 1
- 3 BEL 2 EGY 0
- 4 BEL 2 EGY 0
- 5 BEL 4 EGY 0
- 6 BEL 1 EGY 1
- 7 BEL 1 EGY 1
- 8 BEL 0 EGY 2
- 9 BEL 0 EGY 1
- 10 BEL 1 EGY 2
The goals
Belgium’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 19' | Emam Ashour (Egypt) | 0–1 | +25% Egypt |
| 2. 66' | Mohamed Hany (Belgium, own goal) | 1–1 | +36% Belgium |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 1, 2026
- Mexico 2–0 South Africa Jun 11, 2026 · replay 85% for Mexico
- South Korea 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 11, 2026 · replay 64% for South Korea
- Canada 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina Jun 12, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- United States 4–1 Paraguay Jun 12, 2026 · replay 65% for United States
- Qatar 1–1 Switzerland Jun 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Brazil 1–1 Morocco Jun 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Haiti 0–1 Scotland Jun 13, 2026 · replay 64% for Scotland
- Australia 2–0 Turkey Jun 13, 2026 · replay 62% for Australia
- Germany 7–1 Curaçao Jun 14, 2026 · replay 75% for Germany
- Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador Jun 14, 2026 · replay 66% for Ivory Coast
- Netherlands 2–2 Japan Jun 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sweden 5–1 Tunisia Jun 14, 2026 · replay 73% for Sweden