Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 15, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Iran 2–2 New Zealand: lucky or expected?
Iran and New Zealand drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this tournament, Iran win 6 of 10, New Zealand 2, and 2 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Iran were expected to score 2.1 here and New Zealand 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Iran | 2 |
 New Zealand | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index −20 Iran about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Iran win 6, 2 end level, New Zealand win 2.
- 1 IRN 3 NZL 2
- 2 IRN 2 NZL 1
- 3 IRN 3 NZL 1
- 4 IRN 3 NZL 1
- 5 IRN 4 NZL 1
- 6 IRN 4 NZL 0
- 7 IRN 1 NZL 1
- 8 IRN 1 NZL 1
- 9 IRN 0 NZL 2
- 10 IRN 0 NZL 1
The goals
Iran’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 7' | Elijah Just (New Zealand) | 0–1 | +23% New Zealand |
| 2. 32' | Ramin Rezaeian (Iran) | 1–1 | +27% Iran |
| 3. 54' | Elijah Just (New Zealand) | 1–2 | +32% New Zealand |
| 4. 64' | Mohammad Mohebbi (Iran) | 2–2 | +36% Iran |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
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