luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 15, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Spain 0–0 Cape Verde: lucky or expected?

Spain and Cape Verde drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this tournament, Spain win 6 of 10, Cape Verde 0, and 4 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Spain were expected to score 1.1 here and Cape Verde 0.1.

Full time

Goals
Spain 0
Cape Verde 0

June 15, 2026

Luck index −27 Spain unlucky for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Spain win 6, 4 end level, Cape Verde win 0.

  1. 1 ESP 1 CPV 0
  2. 2 ESP 1 CPV 0
  3. 3 ESP 1 CPV 0
  4. 4 ESP 2 CPV 0
  5. 5 ESP 2 CPV 0
  6. 6 ESP 3 CPV 0
  7. 7 ESP 0 CPV 0
  8. 8 ESP 1 CPV 1
  9. 9 ESP 0 CPV 0
  10. 10 ESP 0 CPV 0

The goals

No goals: Spain and Cape Verde drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (77% for Spain, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 1 matches, 2026 · Spain · Cape Verde

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