Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 16, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Argentina 3–0 Algeria: lucky or expected?
Argentina beat Algeria 3–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Argentina win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Argentina were expected to score 2.5 here and Algeria 0.5.
What the goals say
Luck index +13 Argentina about even · −13 Algeria
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Argentina win 8, 1 ends level, Algeria win 1.
- 1 ARG 1 ALG 0
- 2 ARG 3 ALG 2
- 3 ARG 2 ALG 0
- 4 ARG 2 ALG 0
- 5 ARG 4 ALG 1
- 6 ARG 3 ALG 0
- 7 ARG 4 ALG 0
- 8 ARG 6 ALG 1
- 9 ARG 0 ALG 0
- 10 ARG 0 ALG 1
The goals
Argentina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 17' | Lionel Messi (Argentina) | 1–0 | +25% Argentina |
| 2. 60' | Lionel Messi (Argentina) | 2–0 | +13% Argentina |
| 3. 76' | Lionel Messi (Argentina) | 3–0 | +1% Argentina |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Argentina win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2026
- Mexico 2–0 South Africa Jun 11, 2026 · replay 85% for Mexico
- South Korea 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 11, 2026 · replay 64% for South Korea
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- United States 4–1 Paraguay Jun 12, 2026 · replay 65% for United States
- Qatar 1–1 Switzerland Jun 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 14% draws
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- Haiti 0–1 Scotland Jun 13, 2026 · replay 64% for Scotland
- Australia 2–0 Turkey Jun 13, 2026 · replay 62% for Australia
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- Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador Jun 14, 2026 · replay 66% for Ivory Coast
- Netherlands 2–2 Japan Jun 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sweden 5–1 Tunisia Jun 14, 2026 · replay 73% for Sweden