Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 16, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Iraq 1–4 Norway: lucky or expected?
Norway beat Iraq 4–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Norway win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Iraq were expected to score 0.8 here and Norway 3.2. An own goal helped Norway.
What the goals say
Luck index +11 Norway about even · −11 Iraq
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Iraq win 1, 1 ends level, Norway win 8.
- 1 IRQ 1 NOR 0
- 2 IRQ 1 NOR 1
- 3 IRQ 1 NOR 7
- 4 IRQ 0 NOR 4
- 5 IRQ 1 NOR 5
- 6 IRQ 1 NOR 4
- 7 IRQ 0 NOR 3
- 8 IRQ 0 NOR 2
- 9 IRQ 0 NOR 1
- 10 IRQ 0 NOR 1
The goals
Iraq’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 29' | Erling Haaland (Norway) | 0–1 | +26% Norway |
| 2. 39' | Aymen Hussein (Iraq) | 1–1 | +28% Iraq |
| 3. 43' | Erling Haaland (Norway) | 1–2 | +29% Norway |
| 4. 76' | Leo Østigard (Norway) | 1–3 | +8% Norway |
| 90+6' | Aymen Hussein (Norway, own goal) | 1–4 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Norway win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2026
- Mexico 2–0 South Africa Jun 11, 2026 · replay 85% for Mexico
- South Korea 2–1 Czech Republic Jun 11, 2026 · replay 64% for South Korea
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- Qatar 1–1 Switzerland Jun 13, 2026 · drawn; replay 14% draws
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- Haiti 0–1 Scotland Jun 13, 2026 · replay 64% for Scotland
- Australia 2–0 Turkey Jun 13, 2026 · replay 62% for Australia
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- Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador Jun 14, 2026 · replay 66% for Ivory Coast
- Netherlands 2–2 Japan Jun 14, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sweden 5–1 Tunisia Jun 14, 2026 · replay 73% for Sweden