luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Matchday 1 · World Cup 2026 · June 17, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Ghana 1–0 Panama: lucky or expected?

Ghana beat Panama 1–0, and the goals lean Ghana’s way: 4 wins in 10, 1 for Panama, 5 end level. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Ghana were expected to score 0.6 here and Panama 0.1.

Full time

Goals
Ghana 1
Panama 0

June 17, 2026

Luck index +35 Ghana lucky · −35 Panama

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Ghana win 4, 5 end level, Panama win 1.

  1. 1 GHA 1 PAN 0
  2. 2 GHA 1 PAN 0
  3. 3 GHA 1 PAN 0
  4. 4 GHA 2 PAN 0
  5. 5 GHA 0 PAN 0
  6. 6 GHA 0 PAN 0
  7. 7 GHA 0 PAN 0
  8. 8 GHA 0 PAN 0
  9. 9 GHA 0 PAN 0
  10. 10 GHA 0 PAN 1

The goals

MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
90+5' Caleb Yirenkyi (Ghana) 1–0

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Ghana win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 1 matches, 2026 · Ghana · Panama

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