luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Round of 32 · World Cup 2026 · June 28, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

South Africa 0–1 Canada: lucky or expected?

Canada beat South Africa 1–0, but the goals call it close to a coin flip: Canada go through 6 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, South Africa were expected to score 0.9 here and Canada 1.2.

Full time

Goals
South Africa 0
Canada 1

June 28, 2026

Luck index +40 Canada lucky · −40 South Africa

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. South Africa win 3, 3 end level, Canada win 4.

  1. 1 RSA 1 CAN 0
  2. 2 RSA 1 CAN 0
  3. 3 RSA 2 CAN 0
  4. 4 RSA 0 CAN 0
  5. 5 RSA 0 CAN 0
  6. 6 RSA 1 CAN 1
  7. 7 RSA 0 CAN 2
  8. 8 RSA 0 CAN 2
  9. 9 RSA 1 CAN 2
  10. 10 RSA 0 CAN 1

The goals

MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
90+2' Stephan Eustáquio (Canada) 0–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Canada go through in 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All round of 32 matches, 2026 · South Africa · Canada

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