luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Round of 32 · World Cup 2026 · June 29, 2026 · pens

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Germany 1–1 Paraguay: lucky or expected?

Paraguay went through on penalties after 1–1, but the goals send Germany through 6 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Germany were expected to score 1.8 here and Paraguay 1.3.

Full time · won on penalties

Goals
Germany 1
Paraguay 1

June 29, 2026

Luck index +61 Paraguay very lucky · −61 Germany

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Germany win 5, 3 end level, Paraguay win 2.

  1. 1 GER 2 PAR 1
  2. 2 GER 2 PAR 1
  3. 3 GER 2 PAR 0
  4. 4 GER 2 PAR 0
  5. 5 GER 3 PAR 0
  6. 6 GER 2 PAR 2
  7. 7 GER 0 PAR 0
  8. 8 GER 0 PAR 0
  9. 9 GER 0 PAR 2
  10. 10 GER 0 PAR 1

The goals

Germany’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Germany was ahead in it, below while Paraguay was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 42' Julio Enciso (Paraguay) 0–1 +29% Paraguay
2. 54' Kai Havertz (Germany) 1–1 +32% Germany

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Paraguay go through in 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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