luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Round of 32 · World Cup 2026 · July 1, 2026 · AET

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Belgium 3–2 Senegal: lucky or expected?

Belgium beat Senegal 3–2 after extra time, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Belgium go through 7 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Belgium were expected to score 2.3 here and Senegal 1.6.

Full time · after extra time

Goals
Belgium 3
Senegal 2

July 1, 2026

Luck index +35 Belgium lucky · −35 Senegal

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Belgium win 5, 2 end level, Senegal win 3.

  1. 1 BEL 4 SEN 3
  2. 2 BEL 2 SEN 1
  3. 3 BEL 4 SEN 2
  4. 4 BEL 3 SEN 0
  5. 5 BEL 4 SEN 0
  6. 6 BEL 0 SEN 0
  7. 7 BEL 1 SEN 1
  8. 8 BEL 1 SEN 4
  9. 9 BEL 1 SEN 3
  10. 10 BEL 2 SEN 3

The goals

Belgium’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Belgium was ahead in it, below while Senegal was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 25' Habib Diarra (Senegal) 0–1 +26% Senegal
2. 51' Ismaïla Sarr (Senegal) 0–2 +14% Senegal
3. 86' Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) 1–2 +3% Belgium
4. 89' Youri Tielemans (Belgium) 2–2 +49% Belgium
120+5' Youri Tielemans (Belgium, penalty) 3–2

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 2–2. Belgium go through in 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All round of 32 matches, 2026 · Belgium · Senegal

More from round of 32, 2026

Every match of round of 32, 2026