Round of 32 · World Cup 2026 · July 2, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Portugal 2–1 Croatia: lucky or expected?
Portugal beat Croatia 2–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Portugal go through 7 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Portugal were expected to score 1.9 here and Croatia 1.2.
What the goals say: who goes through
Luck index +34 Portugal lucky · −34 Croatia
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Portugal win 5, 2 end level, Croatia win 3.
- 1 POR 1 CRO 0
- 2 POR 4 CRO 3
- 3 POR 2 CRO 0
- 4 POR 3 CRO 1
- 5 POR 3 CRO 0
- 6 POR 1 CRO 1
- 7 POR 0 CRO 0
- 8 POR 1 CRO 3
- 9 POR 1 CRO 2
- 10 POR 0 CRO 1
The goals
Portugal’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 53' | Ivan Perisic (Croatia) | 0–1 | +32% Croatia |
| 2. 68' | Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal, penalty) | 1–1 | +37% Portugal |
| 90+4' | Gonçalo Ramos (Portugal) | 2–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Portugal go through in 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 32, 2026
- South Africa 0–1 Canada Jun 28, 2026 · replay 60% for Canada
- Germany 1–1 Paraguay Jun 29, 2026 · pens · replay 39% for Paraguay
- Netherlands 1–1 Morocco Jun 29, 2026 · pens · replay 50% for Morocco
- Brazil 2–1 Japan Jun 29, 2026 · replay 68% for Brazil
- France 3–0 Sweden Jun 30, 2026 · replay 84% for France
- Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway Jun 30, 2026 · replay 68% for Norway
- Mexico 2–0 Ecuador Jun 30, 2026 · replay 88% for Mexico
- England 2–1 DR Congo Jul 1, 2026 · replay 71% for England
- United States 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina Jul 1, 2026 · replay 73% for United States
- Belgium 3–2 Senegal Jul 1, 2026 · AET · replay 65% for Belgium
- Spain 3–0 Austria Jul 2, 2026 · replay 94% for Spain
- Switzerland 2–0 Algeria Jul 2, 2026 · replay 83% for Switzerland