luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Round of 16 · World Cup 2026 · July 4, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Paraguay 0–1 France: lucky or expected?

France beat Paraguay 1–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, France go through 9 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Paraguay were expected to score 0.3 here and France 1.9.

Full time

Goals
Paraguay 0
France 1

July 4, 2026

Luck index +11 France about even · −11 Paraguay

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Paraguay win 1, 2 end level, France win 7.

  1. 1 PAR 2 FRA 1
  2. 2 PAR 0 FRA 0
  3. 3 PAR 0 FRA 0
  4. 4 PAR 0 FRA 4
  5. 5 PAR 0 FRA 3
  6. 6 PAR 0 FRA 2
  7. 7 PAR 0 FRA 2
  8. 8 PAR 0 FRA 1
  9. 9 PAR 0 FRA 1
  10. 10 PAR 1 FRA 2

The goals

Paraguay’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Paraguay was ahead in it, below while France was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 70' Kylian Mbappé (France, penalty) 0–1 +38% France

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. France go through in 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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