Round of 16 · World Cup 2026 · July 5, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mexico 2–3 England: lucky or expected?
England beat Mexico 3–2, but the goals call it close to a coin flip: England go through 6 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Mexico were expected to score 1.9 here and England 2.1.
What the goals say: who goes through
Luck index +45 England lucky · −45 Mexico
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Mexico win 3, 2 end level, England win 5.
- 1 MEX 1 ENG 0
- 2 MEX 3 ENG 2
- 3 MEX 4 ENG 1
- 4 MEX 1 ENG 1
- 5 MEX 2 ENG 2
- 6 MEX 0 ENG 4
- 7 MEX 2 ENG 4
- 8 MEX 1 ENG 3
- 9 MEX 2 ENG 3
- 10 MEX 2 ENG 3
The goals
Mexico’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 36' | Jude Bellingham (England) | 0–1 | +28% England |
| 2. 38' | Jude Bellingham (England) | 0–2 | +15% England |
| 3. 42' | Julián Quiñones (Mexico) | 1–2 | +15% Mexico |
| 4. 60' | Harry Kane (England, penalty) | 1–3 | +13% England |
| 5. 69' | Raúl Jiménez (Mexico, penalty) | 2–3 | +11% Mexico |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. England go through in 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2026
- Paraguay 0–1 France Jul 4, 2026 · replay 89% for France
- Canada 0–3 Morocco Jul 4, 2026 · replay 71% for Morocco
- Brazil 1–2 Norway Jul 5, 2026 · replay 45% for Norway
- Portugal 0–1 Spain Jul 6, 2026 · replay 82% for Spain
- United States 1–4 Belgium Jul 6, 2026 · replay 62% for Belgium
- Argentina 3–2 Egypt Jul 7, 2026 · replay 70% for Argentina
- Switzerland 0–0 Colombia Jul 7, 2026 · pens · replay 49% for Switzerland