luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Round of 16 · World Cup 2026 · July 6, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

United States 1–4 Belgium: lucky or expected?

Belgium beat United States 4–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this tournament, Belgium go through 6 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, United States were expected to score 1.8 here and Belgium 2.4.

Full time

Goals
United States 1
Belgium 4

July 6, 2026

Luck index +38 Belgium lucky · −38 United States

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. United States win 3, 2 end level, Belgium win 5.

  1. 1 USA 3 BEL 2
  2. 2 USA 2 BEL 1
  3. 3 USA 5 BEL 2
  4. 4 USA 2 BEL 2
  5. 5 USA 2 BEL 2
  6. 6 USA 1 BEL 5
  7. 7 USA 1 BEL 4
  8. 8 USA 2 BEL 4
  9. 9 USA 0 BEL 1
  10. 10 USA 2 BEL 3

The goals

United States’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while United States was ahead in it, below while Belgium was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 9' Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) 0–1 +23% Belgium
2. 31' Malik Tillman (United States) 1–1 +27% United States
3. 33' Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) 1–2 +27% Belgium
4. 57' Hans Vanaken (Belgium) 1–3 +13% Belgium
90+3' Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) 1–4

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Belgium go through in 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All round of 16 matches, 2026 · United States · Belgium

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