luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Round of 16 · World Cup 2026 · July 7, 2026 · pens

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Switzerland 0–0 Colombia: lucky or expected?

Switzerland went through on penalties after 0–0, but the goals call it close to a coin flip: Switzerland go through 5 times in 10. Rated on this tournament’s goals, Switzerland were expected to score 0.6 here and Colombia 0.6.

Full time · won on penalties

Goals
Switzerland 0
Colombia 0

July 7, 2026

Luck index +51 Switzerland lucky · −51 Colombia

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the tournament say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Switzerland win 3, 4 end level, Colombia win 3.

  1. 1 SUI 1 COL 0
  2. 2 SUI 1 COL 0
  3. 3 SUI 2 COL 0
  4. 4 SUI 0 COL 0
  5. 5 SUI 0 COL 0
  6. 6 SUI 0 COL 0
  7. 7 SUI 1 COL 1
  8. 8 SUI 0 COL 2
  9. 9 SUI 0 COL 1
  10. 10 SUI 0 COL 1

The goals

No goals: Switzerland and Colombia drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (49% for Switzerland, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the tournament’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 0–0. Switzerland go through in 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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