Matchday 33 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 9, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leipzig 2–1 St. Pauli: lucky or expected?
Leipzig beat St. Pauli 2–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Leipzig win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leipzig were expected to score 2.0 here and St. Pauli 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 RB Leipzig | 2 |
 FC St. Pauli | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +21 Leipzig about even · −21 St. Pauli
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leipzig win 7, 2 end level, St. Pauli win 1.
- 1 RBL 3 STP 2
- 2 RBL 4 STP 3
- 3 RBL 1 STP 0
- 4 RBL 2 STP 0
- 5 RBL 2 STP 0
- 6 RBL 3 STP 0
- 7 RBL 4 STP 0
- 8 RBL 1 STP 1
- 9 RBL 2 STP 2
- 10 RBL 1 STP 2
The goals
Leipzig’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 45' | Xaver Schlager (Leipzig) | 1–0 | +27% Leipzig |
| 2. 54' | Willi Orban (Leipzig) | 2–0 | +13% Leipzig |
| 3. 86' | Abdoulie Ceesay (St. Pauli) | 2–1 | +3% St. Pauli |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leipzig win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
- Dortmund 3–2 Frankfurt May 8, 2026 · replay 73% for Dortmund
- Stuttgart 3–1 Leverkusen May 9, 2026 · replay 57% for Stuttgart
- Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder May 9, 2026 · replay 76% for Hoffenheim
- Augsburg 3–1 Gladbach May 9, 2026 · replay 56% for Augsburg
- Wolfsburg 0–1 Bayern May 9, 2026 · replay 82% for Bayern
- HSV 3–2 Freiburg May 10, 2026 · replay 51% for HSV
- Köln 1–3 Heidenheim May 10, 2026 · replay 37% for Heidenheim
- Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin May 10, 2026 · replay 39% for Union Berlin