Matchday 33 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
HSV 3–2 Freiburg: lucky or expected?
HSV beat Freiburg 3–2, but the goals call it even: HSV win 4 of 10, Freiburg 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, HSV were expected to score 1.4 here and Freiburg 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Hamburger SV | 3 |
 SC Freiburg | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +49 HSV lucky · −49 Freiburg
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. HSV win 4, 3 end level, Freiburg win 3.
- 1 HSV 2 SCF 1
- 2 HSV 2 SCF 1
- 3 HSV 2 SCF 0
- 4 HSV 3 SCF 0
- 5 HSV 0 SCF 0
- 6 HSV 2 SCF 2
- 7 HSV 1 SCF 1
- 8 HSV 0 SCF 3
- 9 HSV 0 SCF 1
- 10 HSV 0 SCF 1
The goals
HSV’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Bakery Jatta (HSV) | 1–0 | +22% HSV |
| 2. 16' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg) | 1–1 | +22% Freiburg |
| 3. 64' | Luka Vuskovic (HSV) | 2–1 | +33% HSV |
| 4. 67' | Fabio Baldé (HSV) | 3–1 | +10% HSV |
| 5. 87' | Igor Matanovic (Freiburg) | 3–2 | +2% Freiburg |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. HSV win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
- Dortmund 3–2 Frankfurt May 8, 2026 · replay 73% for Dortmund
- Stuttgart 3–1 Leverkusen May 9, 2026 · replay 57% for Stuttgart
- Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder May 9, 2026 · replay 76% for Hoffenheim
- Augsburg 3–1 Gladbach May 9, 2026 · replay 56% for Augsburg
- Leipzig 2–1 St. Pauli May 9, 2026 · replay 79% for Leipzig
- Wolfsburg 0–1 Bayern May 9, 2026 · replay 82% for Bayern
- Köln 1–3 Heidenheim May 10, 2026 · replay 37% for Heidenheim
- Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin May 10, 2026 · replay 39% for Union Berlin