Matchday 33 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin: lucky or expected?
Union Berlin beat Mainz 3–1, but the goals lean toward Mainz: 5 wins in 10 to Union Berlin’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Mainz were expected to score 1.5 here and Union Berlin 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Mainz 05 | 1 |
 Union Berlin | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +61 Union Berlin very lucky · −61 Mainz
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Mainz win 5, 3 end level, Union Berlin win 2.
- 1 M05 3 FCU 2
- 2 M05 1 FCU 0
- 3 M05 4 FCU 2
- 4 M05 2 FCU 0
- 5 M05 3 FCU 0
- 6 M05 1 FCU 1
- 7 M05 0 FCU 0
- 8 M05 0 FCU 0
- 9 M05 0 FCU 2
- 10 M05 2 FCU 3
The goals
Mainz’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 38' | Andrej Ilic (Union Berlin) | 0–1 | +28% Union Berlin |
| 2. 48' | Sheraldo Becker (Mainz) | 1–1 | +30% Mainz |
| 3. 88' | Oliver Burke (Union Berlin) | 1–2 | +48% Union Berlin |
| 90+1' | Josip Juranovic (Union Berlin) | 1–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Union Berlin win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
- Dortmund 3–2 Frankfurt May 8, 2026 · replay 73% for Dortmund
- Stuttgart 3–1 Leverkusen May 9, 2026 · replay 57% for Stuttgart
- Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder May 9, 2026 · replay 76% for Hoffenheim
- Augsburg 3–1 Gladbach May 9, 2026 · replay 56% for Augsburg
- Leipzig 2–1 St. Pauli May 9, 2026 · replay 79% for Leipzig
- Wolfsburg 0–1 Bayern May 9, 2026 · replay 82% for Bayern
- HSV 3–2 Freiburg May 10, 2026 · replay 51% for HSV
- Köln 1–3 Heidenheim May 10, 2026 · replay 37% for Heidenheim