Matchday 33 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 9, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Wolfsburg 0–1 Bayern: lucky or expected?
Bayern beat Wolfsburg 1–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Bayern win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Wolfsburg were expected to score 1.4 here and Bayern 3.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfL Wolfsburg | 0 |
 Bayern Munich | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +18 Bayern about even · −18 Wolfsburg
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Wolfsburg win 1, 1 ends level, Bayern win 8.
- 1 WOB 4 FCB 3
- 2 WOB 1 FCB 1
- 3 WOB 2 FCB 8
- 4 WOB 1 FCB 5
- 5 WOB 1 FCB 5
- 6 WOB 2 FCB 5
- 7 WOB 2 FCB 4
- 8 WOB 1 FCB 3
- 9 WOB 0 FCB 1
- 10 WOB 0 FCB 1
The goals
Wolfsburg’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 56' | Michael Olise (Bayern) | 0–1 | +33% Bayern |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bayern win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
- Dortmund 3–2 Frankfurt May 8, 2026 · replay 73% for Dortmund
- Stuttgart 3–1 Leverkusen May 9, 2026 · replay 57% for Stuttgart
- Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder May 9, 2026 · replay 76% for Hoffenheim
- Augsburg 3–1 Gladbach May 9, 2026 · replay 56% for Augsburg
- Leipzig 2–1 St. Pauli May 9, 2026 · replay 79% for Leipzig
- HSV 3–2 Freiburg May 10, 2026 · replay 51% for HSV
- Köln 1–3 Heidenheim May 10, 2026 · replay 37% for Heidenheim
- Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin May 10, 2026 · replay 39% for Union Berlin