Matchday 33 · Bundesliga 2025-26 · May 9, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Stuttgart 3–1 Leverkusen: lucky or expected?
Stuttgart beat Leverkusen 3–1, and the goals lean Stuttgart’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Leverkusen, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Stuttgart were expected to score 2.0 here and Leverkusen 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 VfB Stuttgart | 3 |
 Bayer Leverkusen | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +43 Stuttgart lucky · −43 Leverkusen
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Stuttgart win 5, 2 end level, Leverkusen win 3.
- 1 VFB 1 B04 0
- 2 VFB 2 B04 1
- 3 VFB 3 B04 1
- 4 VFB 2 B04 0
- 5 VFB 4 B04 0
- 6 VFB 3 B04 3
- 7 VFB 1 B04 1
- 8 VFB 2 B04 5
- 9 VFB 1 B04 3
- 10 VFB 1 B04 2
The goals
Stuttgart’s chance of winning
As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 1' | Aleix Garcia (Leverkusen) | 0–1 | +22% Leverkusen |
| 2. 5' | Ermedin Demirovic (Stuttgart) | 1–1 | +23% Stuttgart |
| 3. 45+7' | Maximilian Mittelstaedt (Stuttgart, penalty) | 2–1 | +29% Stuttgart |
| 4. 58' | Deniz Undav (Stuttgart) | 3–1 | +12% Stuttgart |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain), the newest also from OpenLigaDB (Open Database License). Neither has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Stuttgart win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
- Dortmund 3–2 Frankfurt May 8, 2026 · replay 73% for Dortmund
- Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder May 9, 2026 · replay 76% for Hoffenheim
- Augsburg 3–1 Gladbach May 9, 2026 · replay 56% for Augsburg
- Leipzig 2–1 St. Pauli May 9, 2026 · replay 79% for Leipzig
- Wolfsburg 0–1 Bayern May 9, 2026 · replay 82% for Bayern
- HSV 3–2 Freiburg May 10, 2026 · replay 51% for HSV
- Köln 1–3 Heidenheim May 10, 2026 · replay 37% for Heidenheim
- Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin May 10, 2026 · replay 39% for Union Berlin