Matchday 3 · La Liga 2025-26 · August 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Madrid 2–1 Mallorca: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Mallorca 2–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Madrid were expected to score 2.3 here and Mallorca 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 2 |
 Mallorca | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +18 Real Madrid about even · −18 Mallorca
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 7, 2 end level, Mallorca win 1.
- 1 RMA 1 MLL 0
- 2 RMA 2 MLL 1
- 3 RMA 3 MLL 1
- 4 RMA 3 MLL 1
- 5 RMA 2 MLL 0
- 6 RMA 3 MLL 0
- 7 RMA 5 MLL 0
- 8 RMA 3 MLL 3
- 9 RMA 0 MLL 0
- 10 RMA 1 MLL 2
The goals
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 18' | Vedat Muriqi (Mallorca) | 0–1 | +27% Mallorca |
| 2. 37' | Arda Guler (Real Madrid) | 1–1 | +30% Real Madrid |
| 3. 38' | Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) | 2–1 | +27% Real Madrid |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2025-26
- Elche 2–0 Levante Aug 29, 2025 · replay 62% for Elche
- Valencia 3–0 Getafe Aug 29, 2025 · replay 61% for Valencia
- Alavés 1–1 Atlético Aug 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Oviedo 1–0 Real Sociedad Aug 30, 2025 · replay 42% for Oviedo
- Girona 0–2 Sevilla Aug 30, 2025 · replay 39% for Sevilla
- Celta 1–1 Villarreal Aug 31, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Betis 1–2 Athletic Aug 31, 2025 · replay 28% for Athletic
- Espanyol 1–0 Osasuna Aug 31, 2025 · replay 56% for Espanyol
- Rayo 1–1 Barcelona Aug 31, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws