Matchday 3 · La Liga 2025-26 · August 29, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Valencia 3–0 Getafe: lucky or expected?
Valencia beat Getafe 3–0, and the goals lean Valencia’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Getafe, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Valencia were expected to score 1.1 here and Getafe 0.7.
What the goals say
Luck index +39 Valencia lucky · −39 Getafe
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 4, 3 end level, Getafe win 3.
- 1 VAL 1 GET 0
- 2 VAL 2 GET 1
- 3 VAL 2 GET 0
- 4 VAL 3 GET 0
- 5 VAL 1 GET 1
- 6 VAL 0 GET 0
- 7 VAL 1 GET 1
- 8 VAL 0 GET 2
- 9 VAL 0 GET 1
- 10 VAL 0 GET 1
The goals
Valencia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 30' | Mouctar Diakhaby (Valencia) | 1–0 | +25% Valencia |
| 2. 54' | Arnaut Danjuma (Valencia) | 2–0 | +11% Valencia |
| 90+7' | Hugo Duro (Valencia) | 3–0 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Valencia win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2025-26
- Elche 2–0 Levante Aug 29, 2025 · replay 62% for Elche
- Alavés 1–1 Atlético Aug 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Oviedo 1–0 Real Sociedad Aug 30, 2025 · replay 42% for Oviedo
- Girona 0–2 Sevilla Aug 30, 2025 · replay 39% for Sevilla
- Real Madrid 2–1 Mallorca Aug 30, 2025 · replay 82% for Real Madrid
- Celta 1–1 Villarreal Aug 31, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Betis 1–2 Athletic Aug 31, 2025 · replay 28% for Athletic
- Espanyol 1–0 Osasuna Aug 31, 2025 · replay 56% for Espanyol
- Rayo 1–1 Barcelona Aug 31, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws