Matchday 3 · La Liga 2025-26 · August 31, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Betis 1–2 Athletic: lucky or expected?
Athletic beat Betis 2–1, but the goals lean toward Betis: 6 wins in 10 to Athletic’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Betis were expected to score 1.9 here and Athletic 0.9. An own goal helped Athletic.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 |
 Athletic Club | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +72 Athletic very lucky · −72 Betis
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 6, 2 end level, Athletic win 2.
- 1 BET 2 ATH 1
- 2 BET 1 ATH 0
- 3 BET 2 ATH 0
- 4 BET 2 ATH 0
- 5 BET 4 ATH 1
- 6 BET 5 ATH 1
- 7 BET 0 ATH 0
- 8 BET 2 ATH 2
- 9 BET 0 ATH 2
- 10 BET 1 ATH 2
The goals
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 60' | Marc Bartra (Athletic, own goal) | 0–1 | +36% Athletic |
| 2. 85' | Aitor Paredes (Athletic) | 0–2 | +4% Athletic |
| 90+7' | Cedric Bakambu (Betis) | 1–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Athletic win 28% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2025-26
- Elche 2–0 Levante Aug 29, 2025 · replay 62% for Elche
- Valencia 3–0 Getafe Aug 29, 2025 · replay 61% for Valencia
- Alavés 1–1 Atlético Aug 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Oviedo 1–0 Real Sociedad Aug 30, 2025 · replay 42% for Oviedo
- Girona 0–2 Sevilla Aug 30, 2025 · replay 39% for Sevilla
- Real Madrid 2–1 Mallorca Aug 30, 2025 · replay 82% for Real Madrid
- Celta 1–1 Villarreal Aug 31, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Osasuna Aug 31, 2025 · replay 56% for Espanyol
- Rayo 1–1 Barcelona Aug 31, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws