Matchday 4 · La Liga 2025-26 · September 13, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Real Sociedad 1–2 Real Madrid: lucky or expected?
Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 2–1, and the goals lean Real Madrid’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Real Sociedad, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Real Sociedad were expected to score 1.4 here and Real Madrid 2.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 1 |
 Real Madrid | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +38 Real Madrid lucky · −38 Real Sociedad
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 3, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 5.
- 1 RSO 1 RMA 0
- 2 RSO 2 RMA 1
- 3 RSO 4 RMA 2
- 4 RSO 0 RMA 0
- 5 RSO 3 RMA 3
- 6 RSO 0 RMA 4
- 7 RSO 0 RMA 3
- 8 RSO 0 RMA 2
- 9 RSO 1 RMA 2
- 10 RSO 0 RMA 1
The goals
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 12' | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 0–1 | +26% Real Madrid |
| 2. 44' | Arda Guler (Real Madrid) | 0–2 | +17% Real Madrid |
| 3. 56' | Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad, penalty) | 1–2 | +16% Real Sociedad |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Real Madrid win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 4 matches, 2025-26 · 
Real Sociedad · 
Real Madrid
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